Death rates in the United States have exceeded birth rates in recent years, but new vital records data shows that population growth is now on the rise.
Data from 2024 shows a slight reversal in population trends over recent years, and births now outpace deaths in the U.S. 3.6. million babies were born in the United States last year, compared to 3.07 million deaths.
In this post, we’ll explain what the data tells us about population data in the United States and the factors that affect birth and death rates. We’ll also discuss how these trends are expected to develop in the near future.
Birth Rates Stabilize as Population Growth Returns
After more than 15 years of steady decline, birth rates showed modest signs of growth in 2025. The number of births in the U.S. has dropped by around 17% from 2007 to 2023, falling to rates not seen since 1979.
However, during 2024, births increased by 1%. This was mainly driven by Hispanic and Asian women, as well as mothers in their early 40s. Though this is only a small increase, it helped to offset death rates for the first time in decades.
Immigration also added 1.1. million people to the U.S. population from 2023 to 2024. This was the highest increase in 2 decades.
Why are people having fewer children?
The U.S. general fertility rate equates to 1.67 births per woman over her lifetime. To sustain the population and account for annual death rates, without factoring in immigration, this would need to rise to 2.1 children per woman.
Though the recent uptick shows a trend towards increased birth rates, generally birth statistics are at a historic low across the United States.
There are a number of factors behind this, including economic challenges, particularly as U.S. citizens don’t automatically receive free healthcare. Social shifts have also led to people more commonly forgoing parenthood for career, educational, or personal reasons.
Increase in U.S. Death Rates
Annual death rates have been on the rise in recent years, even before the coronavirus pandemic. Since 2009, the annual number of deaths in the United States has grown each year.
The total number of deaths in the US increased from 2.4 million to 2.8 million between 2009 and 2019. By 2024, the annual number of deaths had surpassed 3 million, but the overall picture is changing with the drop-off of cases of COVID-19.
Life expectancy rose to 78.7 years in 2024, up from 77.5 years in 2023. The leading causes of death also returned to pre-pandemic norms, with COVID-19 dropping out of the top 5 most common causes of mortality.
The leading causes of death in 2023 in the United States were:
- Heart disease
- Cancer
- Injuries
- Stroke
- Chronic lower respiratory diseases
These causes accounted for 54.3% of the 3,036,658 deaths in the United States in 2023.
U.S. Death Certificate Application
How Population Growth Varies Across the United States
The balance of birth to death rates isn’t equal across the entire United States. Some states have higher than average birth rates, causing what’s known as natural population growth. Conversely, others experience natural population loss as a result of higher mortality rates.
Generally, the populations in the South and West continue to grow through a natural increase. On the other hand, the Northeast and parts of the Midwest are experiencing population shrinkage.
States with the highest population growth
While the reasons behind the state-to-state differences vary, population growth is thought to be linked to a younger average age of residents. This often accounts for higher birth rates, along with in-state migration related to affordable housing or job opportunities for young parents.
Here’s a look at the top 5 states with the highest birth rates in contrast to death rates in recent years:
| State | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
| Texas | 158,753 | 158,253 | 122,879 | 94,499 | 32,356 |
| California | 110,466 | 111,416 | 105,777 | 67,255 | 28,546 |
| Utah | 24,796 | 24,796 | 23,011 | 20,301 | 8,710 |
| New Jersey | 25,492 | 25,492 | 19,302 | 14,030 | -9,244 |
| Illinois | 10,453 | 10,453 | 2,550 | 3,503 | -1,844 |
States with the greatest population loss
Declining population is thought to be linked to aging demographics, particularly if younger residents migrate to other states for easier living conditions or work opportunities. This can increase the average age of in-state residents, leading to a decrease in birth rates.
These are the top 5 states for natural population loss over the previous 5 years:
| State | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
| Pennsylvania | -9,311 | -11,078 | -23,662 | -25,316 | -7,386 |
| West Virginia | -7,844 | -2,264 | -9,125 | -10,517 | -1,682 |
| Florida | -7,321 | 2,607 | -8,297 | -1,961 | 1,353 |
| Massachusetts | -6,983 | -6,983 | -5,502 | -4,789 | -5,020 |
| Ohio | -5,500 | -2,462 | -20,283 | -18,541 | -4,122 |
Predictions for Birth and Death Rates in 2025
Early projections suggest that birth rates in the U.S. will remain stable or see a slight increase in 2025, following on from 2024 trends.
Housing and healthcare costs, along with other economic factors, will continue to shape family planning decisions for most Americans. If inflation slows and job markets remain strong, births may continue to rise modestly, particularly among younger citizens.
Death rates are expected to hold steady or decline slightly, in continuation from recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. Much like other years, life expectancy is expected to increase slightly, thanks to advances in healthcare and medical technology.
Birth and death certificates are how the CDC tracks these vital statistics. These documents are essential for official purposes, such as proving identity or accessing services. If you need a certified copy of your birth certificate, you can apply quickly and easily online.
